The Shemittah Fallacy

Real questions, submitted by actual OU Torah followers, with their real answers. NOTE: For questions of practical halacha, please consult your own rabbi for guidance.

Q. I read that almost every economic depression in the US happened in a shemittah year or just after one. How do you explain this?

A. We believe that there are no coincidences, but one must also be careful not to mistake correlation for causation. For example, ice cream sales go up in the summer and viral meningitis rates go up in the summer but that doesn't mean that ice cream causes meningitis. Rather, both of these things are correlated to a third factor: the heat.

Similarly, the observation that economic downturns typically follow shemittah years may be accurate. (I don't know if it is, but I'll take your word for it.) But even if it's accurate, it's still an example of the logical fallacy of “post hoc ergo propter hoc,” i.e., just because B followed A that doesn't mean that A caused B.

So we believe that God runs the world and nothing happens by accident but if one wants to convincingly prove a connection between shemittah and the US economy, I think that one must examine more factors than just those two.

In short, I think the observation makes fodder for an interesting article or drasha but I, for one, wouldn't change my investment strategy based on it.

Rabbi Jack's latest book, Ask Rabbi Jack, is now available from Kodesh Press and on Amazon.com.